Why Unity Software Stock Keeps Going Up

Key Points

• Four separate analysts have recommended buying Unity Software stock in the last 24 hours.

• Morgan Stanley has the most interesting advice, recommending the stock, but seemingly at a price substantially lower than it costs today.

• Unity stock really is quite expensive for its growth forecast.

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More and more analysts are unifying behind a bull thesis on Unity Software (NYSE: U). Shares of the graphics software company rocketed 14% yesterday after Jefferies raised its price target to $35.

Today, three more analysts are chiming in on Unity -- and the stock is up 10.8% through 9:55 a.m. ET.

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Image source: Getty Images.

Valuing Unity stock

In a trio of notes this morning, UBS raised its price target on Unity stock to $33, with a neutral rating; Wedbush raised its price target to $39 with an outperform recommendation; and Morgan Stanley ended with a good news/bad news note:

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost writes today on The Fly that he's seeing "marked improvement" with Unity Ads sales up 15% to 20%. Unity has "produced a fundamentally more competitive ad product," says Cost, that's translating into tremendous sales growth.

Is Unity stock a buy?

But here's the weird part: Cost gives Unity stock an overweight rating, but only a $25 price target, which is below the $38 Unity stock costs today. So what's an investor to make of that?

Morgan Stanley might have made a typo, and meant to value Unity stock higher. Alternatively, what Cost might be trying to say is that Unity would be a buy... at the right price. And that's a sentiment I agree with.

With $308 million in trailing free cash flow and a $15.8 billion market cap, Unity stock now trades at a steep 51 price-to-free-cash-flow ratio. This seems expensive to me given most analysts forecast the company will grow FCF only about 26% annually over the next five years. But if you cut the stock's price 35% or so, to about $25 a share, $10.4 billion, or 33.5 times FCF, the valuation looks more attractive.

At that price, I might even buy some myself.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group and Unity Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.