Take-Two Stock Is Crushing the Nasdaq in 2025. Is It a Buy?

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) stock is up 27% year to date, significantly outperforming the broader market. By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) is up just 0.59% at the time of writing.

The maker of the uber-popular series Grand Theft Auto (GTA) reported outstanding financial results to cap off fiscal 2025 (ending in March). The momentum is noteworthy as Take-Two prepares to launch a series of new releases in the coming years, including GTA VI, to grow the business.

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However, it's always important to have an understanding of what you're actually paying for at the current share price. With the stock trading at higher multiples of sales and earnings, can investors buying shares today expect a good return on their investment?

Image source: Getty Images.

Recent business performance and outlook

Take-Two is hitting a nice stride as management executes against its long-term strategy to grow the business. The company's non-GAAP (adjusted) revenue, or bookings, grew 6% year over year in fiscal 2025, with bookings up 17% in the most recent quarter.

Its strategy of focusing on building player relationships from releasing live updates to existing franchises is paying off. Bookings from players spending money on virtual currency and other content while playing games, or "recurrent consumer spending," accounted for 80% of bookings in fiscal 2025.

Take-Two just released Sid Meier's Civilization VII for the Nintendo Switch 2 in early June, with several other titles from existing franchises planned over the next year. For fiscal 2026, management is guiding for bookings to increase 6% over fiscal 2025 to approximately $6 billion.

The big one -- GTA VI -- is scheduled for release on May 26, 2026. Given the 215 million copies the current version of the game has sold since 2013, Wall Street anticipates blockbuster sales, with current estimates calling for Take-Two's bookings to hit $9 billion in fiscal 2027.

Are GTA VI sales fully priced in?

Take-Two has delivered strong growth for shareholders over the last 10 years. Its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) revenue grew at an annualized rate of 18%, which includes the acquisition of mobile game maker Zynga in fiscal 2023, although the company's profits and free cash flow have taken a hit since that acquisition.

However, Take-Two has a history of growing its earnings and free cash flow, and that is very much on the table going forward. Take-Two is following a long-term strategy to expand its portfolio of games, grow recurrent consumer spending, and scale the business to spread more revenue over costs and expand margins.

During the last earnings call, management stated there is no reason the business can't reach a low to mid-20% operating margin like it achieved during the pandemic. This is what Wall Street analysts are expecting, with projected annual earnings growth at 36% for the next several years.

TTWO EPS LT Growth Estimates data by YCharts

Given the expectation for higher margins and earnings growth, the stock is trading at its highest price-to-sales multiple since its previous peak margins during the pandemic. It's also trading at a high forward price-to-earnings multiple of 87.

TTWO PS Ratio data by YCharts

But sales and earnings multiples don't tell the whole story about a company's intrinsic value. To reverse engineer the expectations implied in the current $235 share price, I plugged in some numbers to a discounted cash flow model.

I assumed the company's revenue would grow at double-digit annual rates to reach $18 billion by 2035, with the operating margin reaching 25%. Using a 10% discount rate and a 4% terminal growth rate beyond year 10, Take-Two's intrinsic value is $236.

Those are the financial targets Take-Two needs to achieve to justify the current share price. For the stock to be considered a screaming buy right now, you have to make more aggressive growth projections. To justify a fair value of $300, Take-Two would have to either achieve an operating margin in the 30% range or grow its revenue to $25 billion.

Take-Two stock rocketed over 1,000% following the previous GTA launch in 2013, but that's because investors significantly underestimated the sales and profits from that release. Investors have wised up to the potential of GTA VI and priced the stock accordingly. The stock is still a buy for someone that can be satisfied with a more modest return. But given the current valuation, I wouldn't buy it if you're expecting significant outperformance relative to the broader market.

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John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Take-Two Interactive Software. The Motley Fool recommends Nintendo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.