Every Rivian Investor Should Keep an Eye on These 2 Numbers

Despite heavy volatility, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) share prices have jumped nearly 20% in value over the past year. Part of that growth is tied to analyst expectations that revenue will jump by 10% this year, with another 48% growth anticipated in 2026. It's definitely a metric to follow. Apart from revenue growth, however, there are two other numbers that investors should be monitoring very closely.

Trump's new bill could hit Rivian hard

A new bill backed by President Donald Trump could eliminate tax credits for electric vehicle (EV) buyers. Currently, qualified buyers can receive anywhere from $4,000 to $7,500 in tax credits when they purchase an EV. While we don't have exact data for Rivian, surveys of other EV brands suggest that 36% to 53% of buyers wouldn't have purchased their EV without a tax credit.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Rivian's current lineup largely doesn't qualify for federal tax incentives apart from a commercial leasing loophole. But next year, Rivian plans on releasing three new vehicles priced under $50,000 -- all of which would qualify for the current tax credits. If tax credits are eliminated, these new affordable models could face lower demand, as their effective cost for consumers would be higher.

Investors should closely monitor what happens to federal tax credit values. But there's another federal program I'm watching even more closely.

Image source: Getty Images.

Last quarter, Rivian booked a $206 million gross profit -- only the second time the company has ever posted positive gross margins. This figure was significantly aided, however, by $157 million in automotive regulatory credit sales. Rivian accrues these credits from the federal government for producing zero-emission vehicles. It then sells these credits to competitors that don't produce enough zero-emission vehicles. These credits are received and sold at essentially no cost, making their margins nearly 100% profit.

As with federal tax credits for EV buyers, these regulatory credits could be at risk. Rivian doesn't break down how much comes from federal versus state programs, but I'll be carefully monitoring their fate.

Should you invest $1,000 in Rivian Automotive right now?

Before you buy stock in Rivian Automotive, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Rivian Automotive wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $653,702!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $870,207!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 988% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.