Could BigBear.ai Stock Turn a $25,000 Investment Into $1 Million?

Many investors see a lot of potential in BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI). The data analytics company is sometimes compared to Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) in that it can serve many industries, has secured government contracts, and is utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to expand upon its opportunities.

But is that comparison really justified? Could BigBear.ai -- with its small-cap size of just $1 billion or so today -- become the next hot growth stock? And if so, does it have the potential to turn a $25,000 investment into $1 million over the long term?

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Is there a path to $45 billion?

For a $25,000 investment in BigBear.ai to grow to $1 million or more, the stock would need to grow by 40 times. That would mean its market cap needs to reach more than $45 billion. To earn such a valuation, the company would need to show significant improvements on both its top and bottom lines.

The good news is that many companies are spending heavily on AI in order to enhance their decision-making capabilities and improve overall efficiency. There are serious opportunities for BigBear.ai to capitalize on those trends in the long run.

The problem is that while BigBear.ai offers various AI solutions (including predictive intelligence, cybersecurity, modeling, and digital identity management), that hasn't translated into significant revenue growth. The company's growth rate over the past few years has averaged just under 4%.

BBAI Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.

This year, management is forecasting revenue between $160 million and $180 million. The low end of the forecast would be almost flat relative to the $158 million it achieved in 2024. If it hits the top end of the range, its revenue will grow by around 14%. While that's decent, it's not the type of AI-powered growth that investors may be expecting or that may be necessary for the stock to take off.

BigBear.ai is no Palantir

BigBear.ai has been securing defense-related contracts similar to those pursued by Palantir, which has been a key partner for governments around the world. Most recently, BigBear.ai announced a collaboration with Hardy Dynamics, which provides the U.S. Army with "advanced AI capabilities."

But while they may offer somewhat comparable services, that doesn't mean that these two businesses are the same. What has made Palantir a hot AI stock is the company's relentless growth. It has been expanding both its commercial and government businesses at impressive rates. During the first three months of 2025, Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue grew by 71% year over year, and its U.S. government revenue was up by 45%. BigBear.ai, meanwhile, may not even generate 10% growth across its entire business this year.

Further, while Palantir is profitable, BigBear.ai is nowhere near breaking even. It posted a net loss of $62 million in the first quarter -- more than the $35 million in revenue it brought in. Until BigBear.ai can show that it can generate the type of impressive growth that Palantir has achieved, there's little reason to expect that it can become a top growth stock.

While BigBear.ai does possess potential, so do many of the numerous other companies that are also offering AI solutions. Ultimately, it's the results that matter.

Should you take a chance on BigBear.ai stock anyway?

Given its low valuation, BigBear.ai may seem like a stock worth taking a chance on. After all, if its growth rate does accelerate, the stock could soar. If it were to simply get back to its 52-week high of $10.36, it would more than double in value from where it is today. But at the same time, the stock could also end up plummeting back toward its 52-week low of just over $1.16 if it continues to underwhelm investors with its results.

When it comes to such a volatile stock, it's hard to predict which direction it will go. So while BigBear.ai may be an intriguing stock to watch, it's not going to be a suitable holding for most investors. And there's little reason at this stage to expect that it has the potential to be a millionaire-making investment.

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David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.