Elon Musk Says Robotaxis Will Bring in Billions Next Year. Is Tesla a Buy?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is no stranger to bold predictions, but he may have just made one to top all others.

On Tesla's recent earnings call, Musk not only reaffirmed the company's plan to launch a robotaxi network in Austin in June, but he also said that robotaxis would "move the financial needle in a significant way" by the middle of next year or the second half of next year.

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For a company the size of Tesla to move the financial needle significantly implies billions in revenue. After all, the electric vehicle (EV) maker brought in nearly $100 billion in revenue in 2024. Not only did he promise that robotaxis would move the needle, but he also said the business would grow exponentially from that point on.

However, Musk has been known to make big promises that end up taking years before Tesla actually fulfills them. He's made several promises over the last decade that fully self-driving cars were right around the corner, though Teslas are still not legally allowed to drive themselves unsupervised.

Similarly, Musk initially said the Cybertruck, which was first unveiled in 2019, would go into production in 2021, though that didn't happen until 2023.

However, after unveiling the "Cybercab" at the company's robotaxi event last October, Tesla does seem to be set for the robotaxi launch in June.

Additionally, the National Highway Transportation Safety Association relaxed its rules last week in regard to autonomous vehicles, streamlining crash-reporting requirements, with a goal of speeding up autonomous-vehicle innovation.

Image source: Tesla.

Move over Uber?

Musk's forecast that the company will be making billions from robotaxis next year implies that it will soon be a major player in ride-sharing, meaning it will challenge the market leaders. Lyft, which is essentially a pure-play domestic ride-sharing service, brought in $16 billion in gross bookings last year. Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) brought in $21.4 billion in revenue from the U.S. in 2024, with an estimated $13 billion from mobility, or roughly $40 billion in gross bookings.

The advantage of Tesla's robotaxi model is that it will keep all of the booking money as revenue as there's no driver to split it with. However, there's also a sign that investors may be skeptical that Tesla can challenge Uber in ride-sharing, at least in the near term.

Last year, Uber stock moved several times in response to the threat of Tesla's robotaxis, though it jumped following the event last October as analysts were largely underwhelmed by it.

However, Uber stock barely moved in response to Musk's robotaxi prediction. If Musk is correct, it would be the clearest sign yet that Uber could be in trouble. Given the lack of response in Uber stock, it seems that investors are taking Musk's words with a grain of salt.

Is Tesla stock a buy?

If Tesla can fulfill Musk's vision of a global robotaxi network and allow Tesla owners to rent out their vehicles, the stock could be on its way to being the most valuable company in the world, as the CEO has predicted.

However, much of the success of the robotaxi network already seems to be priced into the stock.

Tesla trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio well above 100, and its core auto business is clearly struggling. Tesla reported a decline in deliveries last year, and automotive revenue fell 20% in the first quarter as the company struggles with a brand crisis stemming from Musk with the federal government as part of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

If Tesla can pull off a successful robotaxi launch and expansion, and bring in billions in revenue by next year, the stock is likely to surge. However, given Musk's reputation for overpromising and the challenges in rolling out and scaling the robotaxi network, it's likely to take longer than that.

Tesla could get there someday, but investors are better off tempering their expectations for now, especially given the problems in the core business.

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Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.