CAD little changed ahead of jobs data – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed against the generally stronger USD on the session and out-performing its G10 peers as a consequence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Carneys talks trade with Trump

"Reports yesterday suggested that PM Carney and President Trump are quietly discussing a bilateral trade and security agreement that could be tied up before September. The PM has also been talking trade and other issues with Chinese premier Li. Progress on trade would be a clear positive for CAD sentiment as tariffs continue to squeeze the Canadian economy."

"This morning’s labour market report is expected to reflect a drop in employment (Scotia at –25k versus the street’s –10k consensus) and a push higher in unemployment to 7.0% (which would be the highest since late 2021). Soft data may undercut the CAD to some extent and, depending on the USD reaction to NFP, nudge USD/CAD back to the low/mid 1.37s."

"Net losses for the USD have steadied in late week price action. The USD’s rebound from its intraday low yesterday suggests some tempering in immediate downside pressure on spot and the potential for a modest USD rebound to develop. But broader trend dynamics are resolutely USD-bearish and scope for USD counter-trend USD gains is limited. USD support is 1.3625/35. Resistance is 1.3745/50."