Unexpected rise in unemployment adds pressure on RBA

Australia’s ABS will start publishing a complete monthly inflation index on 26 November, beginning with October data. More details will come on Wednesday, as the central bank faces added pressure from rising unemployment.

The change aligns Australia with other advanced economies. As per Bloomberg, until now, it has only released a partial monthly CPI based on a small set of items, an approach that often needed revisions and overlooked deeper price trends.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has long pointed to the lack of up‑to‑date inflation data as a hindrance to policy. Earlier this month, she said the current monthly gauge is “a little too volatile and not quite representative of what’s really going on with inflation.”

Trimmed‑mean inflation was close to the top of the RBA’s 2–3 % range in Q1. Despite softer April and May prints, Bullock said the board will wait for the full quarter’s data before considering another rate move.

The RBA has already cut rates twice this year, in February and again in May. A third cut is likely in August if the July  30 Q2 inflation report shows prices easing.

Unexpected rise in unemployment adds pressure on RBA

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the central bank now confronts an unexpected twist in the labour market. Data released Thursday showed the jobless rate climbed to 4.3 % in June, after two straight months of weak hiring. That rise ended a roughly six‑month stretch at 4.1%.

Full-time jobs declined. Yet, the RBA opted to hold rates steady despite sluggish economic growth and inflation back within acceptable bounds. Traders and economists, nearly fully priced in for a cut, voiced frustration at the surprise hold.

By pausing until the end‑of‑month inflation report, the RBA has thus far avoided a clear policy misstep. But with unemployment now ticking up, the risk of error grows if interest rates remain unchanged in August.

A further rise in joblessness would intensify pressure from Canberra, where Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already lamented that the bank has trimmed only 50 basis points this year.

RBA could cut rates, but inflation concern remains

If Q2 inflation climbs, Bullock’s caution may be justified, but holding rates will be hard to defend while jobs are being lost.

After the pandemic, the RBA avoided big rate hikes while others tightened sharply. That restraint kept unemployment near 50‑year lows despite higher borrowing costs and global jitters.

Now, the central bank risks seeing those employment gains fade, which is a clear sign of policy strain. The cash rate is still above neutral, giving the RBA scope to cut, but it must weigh that against the risk of inflation coming back.

Policymakers must remain focused on holding inflation around 2–3% on average across the cycle, rather than overreact to short‑term swings. Pressure on the RBA is mounting, and only a truly alarming inflation print is likely to derail a rate cut in August.

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