Bitcoin STH NUPL Shows No Sign Of Overheating: $137K Could Trigger Mass Selling

Bitcoin is trading just under the $120,000 level after reaching a new all-time high of $123,200 on Monday. The slight pullback is viewed by many investors as healthy consolidation above key demand zones, rather than a signal of weakness. Bullish momentum remains intact, with strong technical structure supporting expectations of a continued rally in the near term.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds confidence to the bullish outlook. As of July 17, 2025, the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric sits at 13%, down slightly from 16% when Bitcoin last peaked. This indicates that the majority of short-term holders are sitting on moderate profits, but not at extreme levels that typically signal speculative euphoria or imminent market overheating.

The combination of stable price structure and healthy on-chain behavior points to a market still in the process of building higher, rather than topping out. With Ethereum and altcoins also gaining strength and broader sentiment turning positive, Bitcoin appears well-positioned for its next major move.

Bitcoin Data Signals Room For Further Upside

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin still has significant room to run before reaching a level of speculative overheating. In previous macro cycles, Adler notes that the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) metric reaching 25% has consistently marked the peak of euphoria among short-term holders. At that point, many investors began massively taking profits, often triggering a loss of momentum or a broader correction across the market.

As of July 17, 2025, STH NUPL stands at 13%, indicating that unrealized profits among short-term holders remain moderate. Based on current dynamics, Adler estimates that for this cohort to reach a 25% unrealized profit level, Bitcoin would need to break above $137,000. That price level now represents a potential trigger point for mass selling—a psychological and on-chain threshold that could lead to increased volatility or a cycle pause.

Until then, the data suggests there is room for continued bullish price action without fear of immediate profit-taking pressure. This comes at a crucial time, as the US Congress continues to deliberate on three major cryptocurrency bills during what has been a tense and uncertain “Crypto Week.” After rejecting the proposals over the past two days, the next sessions may either ease regulatory uncertainty or prolong it.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Rising Volume Surge

The 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating just below $120,000 after recently setting a new all-time high at $123,200. Despite the brief retracement, BTC remains in a strong bullish structure, trading well above all key moving averages: the 50 SMA at $110,602, the 100 SMA at $108,105, and the 200 SMA at $102,178. These levels now act as dynamic support zones, underlining the strength of the ongoing trend.

Notably, volume has spiked significantly over the past few sessions, with back-to-back high-volume candles accompanying both the move to new highs and the subsequent correction. This surge in volume suggests elevated market activity, likely reflecting a mix of profit-taking and new inflows from traders positioning for further upside.

So far, the consolidation appears healthy. As long as Bitcoin holds above the short-term moving averages and $109,300, the market structure favors the bulls. A clean reclaim of $120K would open the path for another attempt at new highs, possibly targeting the $130K–$137K region.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView