New poll shows up to 50% of Trump’s 2024 voters have doubts about his tariff policies

A new survey is sending a clear message to the White House: Trump’s trade war is pushing some of his own voters away, creating fresh political risks for Republicans as the 2026 elections approach.

The poll, conducted by POLITICO and Public First, shows that between 25% and nearly 50% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 now have serious doubts about his tariff policies, particularly on China. 

Despite promising that his tariffs would help American companies, the numbers tell a different story. Only half of Trump’s 2024 voters still believe those tariffs on China actually help U.S. businesses. The rest either say they don’t help, they hurt, or they’re just not sure anymore. 

These doubts come at a time when Trump is sending tariff warning letters to several countries and promising a new wave of levies starting August 1, all published on Truth Social, the platform he owns.

Tariff support fades over rising costs

Trump claims the new tariffs will bring “big money” into the country. But that money doesn’t come from China; it comes from U.S. importers, and eventually, American consumers. His latest plan includes a 10% duty on all foreign goods and steeper rates on auto parts, steel, and aluminum. While these taxes have brought in billions in revenue, companies are passing those costs directly to the public. And that’s beginning to hit home.

The POLITICO-Public First poll, conducted from June 10 to 20, found that just 46% of Trump voters support tariffs on China if prices go up. Another 32% only back tariffs if prices stay the same. The rest? 9% oppose them entirely, and 13% don’t know what to think. So the majority of Trump’s base no longer gives him a blank check on trade if it means they’re stuck paying more at checkout.

Some voters are already seeing the impact. Between April and May, major appliance prices rose by 4% after the first round of tariffs took effect. Retailers say tariffs are now part of the reason prices are climbing on everyday goods like footwear and toys. That’s turning into a political liability, especially for a president who ran hard against inflation during the 2024 campaign.

Even Trump’s authority to impose tariffs is now being questioned. 45% of his voters believe he should have that power alone. But 44% think Congress should be involved. That’s nearly an even split, not a good sign for a man who built his brand on doing things his way.

China’s strategy divides voters, but loyalty lingers

Trump has made China the focus of his trade agenda. But his own supporters can’t agree on whether that strategy is working. When asked which country should be the U.S.’s top priority for trade deals, 34% of all respondents, including 30% of Trump’s voters, named China. Yet many of those same voters remain divided on his methods.

Roughly 25% of Trump voters said tariffs on China are hurting American companies. Others say they’ve had no impact or just aren’t sure. Despite that, the majority still backs Trump to get a trade deal done. 55% said it “will be difficult” but believe he’ll pull it off, and 18% think it won’t be difficult at all. Only 12% said he won’t manage it. By comparison, 47% of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 think Trump will fail to deliver.

That same group, Harris voters, overwhelmingly opposes Trump’s approach. 86% of them said his tariffs are damaging U.S. efforts to cut better trade deals. But it’s the shift inside Trump’s own base that’s setting off alarm bells. Around 1 in 4 Trump voters agree with Harris supporters on at least one thing: the tariffs are making things worse, not better.

The full survey included 2,276 American adults, and results for Trump voters carry a 5% margin of error. Overall, the poll has a 2% margin, and questions asked to half the sample carry a 3% margin. Even with those buffers, the direction is obvious. Trump’s trade agenda, especially with China, is no longer a guaranteed win inside his party. Republicans counting on a united front in 2026 now have to deal with real cracks, and they’re coming from inside their own voter base.

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