Bitcoin Weekly Drawdown Shrinks To 4.7% – Calm Before The Next Breakout?

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength above the $106,000 mark following a turbulent period driven by escalating Middle East tensions. Over the weekend, uncertainty spiked as geopolitical risks surged, but the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has brought a degree of relief to global markets, crypto included. BTC has since reclaimed key levels, with bulls regaining short-term control.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the current market structure reflects a healthy and maturing bull cycle. Since the rally began in November 2022, Bitcoin has only experienced two major drawdowns exceeding 30%—one in August 2024 and another in April 2025. In both cases, prices quickly recovered and went on to set new all-time highs, signaling resilience and strong demand beneath the surface.

More importantly, all other corrections during this cycle have remained within a typical 10–20% range, functioning as short-term “shake-outs” rather than signs of weakness. At present, Bitcoin’s weekly SMA drawdown sits around -7%, while the overall drawdown is only -4.7%, suggesting the market is in a stable consolidation phase between $100,000 and $106,000. With volatility easing and buyers stepping in, BTC appears well-positioned for its next decisive move.

Bitcoin Consolidates As Market Maturity Reinforces Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin’s price action remains in focus after a sharp drop to $98,000 triggered market-wide concern. However, BTC quickly rebounded, climbing above the $105,000 level and stabilizing in a narrow consolidation range. While speculation around a potential double top continues to circulate, on-chain metrics suggest no structural breakdown. Market sentiment has leaned slightly bearish, but the underlying trend remains intact.

Top analyst Axel Adler highlighted a critical pattern: since the bull market began in November 2022, Bitcoin has only faced two significant corrections exceeding 30%—in August 2024 and April 2025. Both times, the asset swiftly recovered and moved on to set new highs. Outside of these episodes, price pullbacks have remained within the typical 10–20% range, functioning as healthy shake-outs rather than breakdowns. This consistency reflects a maturing market with stronger hands and more disciplined demand.

As of now, the weekly SMA drawdown sits around -7%, and the current drawdown is a modest -4.7%, reinforcing the idea of calm consolidation within the $100K to $106K range. The pattern of deep correction followed by accumulation and then a renewed push higher has defined this cycle. If this structure holds, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another leg toward new all-time highs. Confidence continues to grow that BTC’s path remains upward, driven by macro adoption, decreasing exchange liquidity, and the strengthening belief in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

BTC Approaches Key Resistance After Sharp Recovery

Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,622 on the 12-hour chart after rebounding strongly from the recent low of $98,000. The recovery, sparked by geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, pushed BTC above the critical $103,600 support level and into a renewed bullish structure. Price has now crossed above the 50 and 100-period moving averages ($105,410 and $105,309), a short-term positive signal suggesting growing momentum.

Volume also surged during the bounce, confirming strong buyer interest near the $100K mark. BTC now faces a decisive resistance zone around $109,300—the previous local top and a level where sellers have historically stepped in. If bulls manage to push through this zone with volume, it would likely trigger a breakout toward new highs.

However, rejection at this level could send Bitcoin back to retest the $103,600 support. The current consolidation range between $103K and $109K has served as a high-activity zone since early May, and a breakout in either direction would provide clearer market direction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView