Sanctions risk and CTA flows lift oil prices – TDS

WTI and Brent crude rose on sanctions fears and heavy CTA buying, but positioning limits in WTI and rising global supply suggest limited upside. Prices may ease after summer as OPEC+ and US output continue to grow, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

OPEC+ and US supply to cap Oil gains

"The threat of secondary sanctions on Russian crude supported WTI and Brent crude prices over the last session. However, this price action was bolstered by large-scale CTA buying activity. Algos have now acheived their 'max long' position size in WTI, limiting the scope for further inflows, although this cohort still has a few more bullets to fire in Brent crude."

"We continue to expect prices to subside following the summer, owing to continued supply additions from OPEC+, alongside our expectations for more-resilient-than-expected US supply growth following the Israel-Iran war."