GBP/USD extends losses after Fed trims rate cut expectations
- GBP/USD lost even more ground on Wednesday, falling for a fifth straight day.
- Cable traders have an increasingly steep hole to dig themselves out of.
- US economic data will take on newfound importance this week in the wake of a cautious Fed.
GBP/USD sank for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, falling as the US Dollar (USD) catches a broad-market bid after the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady and stuck to its stubborn wait-and-see stance, trimming hopes for a September rate cut. With odds of a rate cut on September 17 flying out the window, newfound market pressure will be on a hefty raft of economic data coming out of the United States (US) throughout the back half of the trading week.
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US PCE inflation, due on Thursday, is expected to accelerate slightly, with analysts anticipating an uptick to 0.3% MoM in June compared to the previous month’s 0.2%. A resurgence of inflationary pressure is the last thing investors want, as it could spell doom for ongoing rate cut expectations.
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Friday’s NFP jobs report could add further fuel to rate hold fears. July’s NFP net employment gains report is expected to hold in positive territory after seasonal adjustments. However, the figure is expected to ease to 110K from June’s 147K.
GBP/USD price forecast
A fifth straight down day has put Cable on a collision course with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3131. Price action has pivoted firmly bearish after GBP/USD flubbed a bullish climb toward 1.3600, although new short entries will face challenges with technical oscillators already pinned in oversold territory.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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