Zcash Could Soon Be Bigger Than Cardano. Does That Make Cardano a Sell?

Market-cap rankings shuffle constantly in cryptocurrency, and most of the time, nobody should care. But when Zcash, (CRYPTO: ZEC), a privacy coin, briefly surpassed Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) on May 10 to become the 11th-largest cryptocurrency, it sent a message about where the market is likely to go.

These coins don't compete for the same market. The real story is about what each project's trajectory reveals about what makes a cryptocurrency worth holding in the first place.

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Zcash is riding a thesis while Cardano is (still) searching for one

Zcash has gained more than 1,000% during the past 12 months, powered by an influx of institutional backers; its market cap is more than $9 billion.

For example, Multicoin Capital disclosed in early May that it has been accumulating a significant position in Zcash since February, arguing that Bitcoin doesn't protect against surveillance, and that wealth taxes alongside blockchain forensics driven by artificial intelligence (AI) are creating fresh demand for assets that are both scarce and private.

Another organization, Cypherpunk Technologies, which is backed by Winklevoss Capital, has separately accumulated 295,000 Zcash tokens, or about 1.7% of the coin's circulating supply.

About 30% of that circulating supply now resides in its shielded addresses, which use specialized cryptography to encrypt transaction details and ensure user privacy, something not available on standard public blockchains. That figure has nearly quadrupled during the past two years, which strongly suggests that usage is growing alongside the coin's price.

Cardano looks different from almost every angle, except for its size -- a market cap of $9.5 billion. It's intended to be a smart-contract blockchain that competes in decentralized finance (DeFi), but it held just $137 million in total value locked (TVL) as of May 12, ranking 26th among all blockchains and down from $410 million a year ago.

Years of building the network have not produced the adoption that other smart-contract cryptocurrencies have achieved, nor is there any indication it's right around the corner. A big part of the issue is that Cardano is in an awkward valley.

It's too slow and comparatively expensive to compete with the speed and throughput-focused networks like Solana. It's cheaper than the chain it was originally created to beat, Ethereum, but it's also slightly slower and doesn't have nearly as big an ecosystem, nor does it have much in the way of stablecoin capital to attract app developers or investors seeking a yield.

And, despite its peer-reviewed governance process, which involves a lot of technical debate to arrive at the best possible specification for new features and updates, the pace of Cardano's development is so glacial that its much larger competitors ship their software at a faster pace, too.

Should you sell Cardano or buy Zcash?

Here, it's important to remember that these coins don't compete with each other directly, so the now-temporary market cap crossover is not a signal that one is cannibalizing the other's market share. Privacy-infrastructure and smart-contract platforms serve different users, and outside capital enters them for entirely different reasons.

What the comparison between Cardano and Zcash reveals is a widening gap in conviction narratives. Institutional capital gravitates toward stories that hold up to scrutiny, and Zcash has one. Cardano's narrative has essentially been for investors to wait for better times for the past several years now, but it's still unclear how those better times are supposed to be brought about by what the coin's developers are working on.

For Cardano, the question is whether it's time to sell a cryptocurrency that trades more than 90% below its all-time high with little in the way of positive catalysts on the calendar. A potential approval for a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the second half of 2026 is the clearest near-term reason to hold it. But it's hard to imagine why investors would want to hold it via an ETF given that there's not much of an investment thesis for buying it at the moment.

With that in mind, it's worth selling Cardano. Zcash, in contrast, could be worth buying if you're looking to add exposure to privacy coins or scarce stores of value to your portfolio, but recognize that it's incredibly risky, and not the right asset for everyone.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.