Tariff Refunds Could Unlock Billions for Importers. These Stocks Could See a Boost.

Tariffs are over. At least, tariffs on imports into the United States made by executive order have been deemed unconstitutional. This is putting $166 billion in refunds up for grabs among companies that had to pay high import taxes over the past year as the Trump administration tries to wage economic warfare against countries like China.

Here are the largest potential refund beneficiaries, and whether they could be a buy for your portfolio in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Consumer hardware and retail operators

Any company that imported products into the United States -- outside certain exemptions -- was subject to tariffs based on the country of origin from April of last year until February of this year, when the Supreme Court deemed them illegal. The estimates say the government illegally collected $166 billion in tariffs, which can now be refunded to companies.

Some of the largest beneficiaries of this tariff refund are consumer hardware makers such as Apple and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) (OTC: NTDO.F) Apple is estimated to have paid $3 billion in tariffs, and while it is unclear exactly how much Nintendo paid, the company is suing the federal government to ensure it receives its full refund now that the tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court.

Other potential beneficiaries of a refund could include retailers like Costco Wholesale and apparel businesses like Nike and Lululemon Athletica. Overall, this was a tax on American businesses that could turn into a one-time profit tailwind in 2026 if all the refunds are given out.

Which tariff refund beneficiaries are the best buys?

Just because a company may get a tariff refund does not make it a buy. For example, if Apple gets $3 billion, that is less than 3% of its annual net income of $118 billion, and only a one-time refund.

One stock that may be a large beneficiary is Nintendo. It already sold its gaming hardware, like the Nintendo Switch 2, at thin margins to begin with, and decided not to raise prices despite tariffs that significantly increased input costs for devices sold in the United States. Overall, this was a major reason Nintendo's gross margin slipped to 37% in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, compared with 59% in the same period a year prior.

With the company just launching the Switch 2 device to rave reviews, Nintendo looks like a good stock to buy that will see a nice boost from tariff refunds this year. It is a huge relief for a business that has been highly pressured by increased input costs over the past year.

Brett Schafer has positions in Nintendo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Costco Wholesale, Lululemon Athletica Inc., Nike, and Nintendo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.