USD: Hiring recovery supports steady Fed – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that United States (US) employment rose by 115,000 in April, beating expectations and signaling a recovery after prior weakness. The six‑month average of job gains is picking up again, supported by strong corporate profits and favorable financing conditions. He expects the US economy to weather the global energy crisis relatively well as hiring and wages firm.

Jobs and wages point to resilience

"Employment rose by 115,000 in April. This was significantly higher than expected (consensus +65,000, Commerzbank forecast +50,000), even though revisions show that employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported."

"After employment figures had alternated between increases and decreases over the past eleven months, a decline in jobs would actually have been expected in April. However, we had already noted beforehand that there were some signs that the labor market was improving."

"Furthermore, according to the Atlanta Fed’s median wage tracker, wages rose at a slightly faster pace again, suggesting a tighter labor market. And finally, according to the Conference Board’s survey, consumers are once again viewing the labor market in a slightly more positive light."

"At the same time, corporate profits rose sharply in the first quarter, which typically leads to strong investment and new hiring. As a result, the U.S. economy should weather the global energy crisis relatively well."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)