Canada: Growth masks structural headwinds – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme note that the Canadian economy expanded by 0.2% in February, with Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by industry tracking 1.7% annualized. They highlight that manufacturing’s rebound is largely technical and that, excluding this sector, activity stagnated. While GDP per capita is set for its strongest growth in 15 quarters, they stress ongoing vulnerabilities from tariffs, geopolitics, higher commodity prices, and weak real estate.

Growth resilient but vulnerabilities persist

"Overall, the data released this morning confirm that the Canadian economy has held up in Q1 despite current headwinds."

"Despite the expected stagnation of the economy in March, GDP by industry shows growth of 1.7% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year."

"Under normal circumstances, such growth would be considered decent, but it comes at a time when the population is shrinking, which is holding back the economy’s potential GDP."

"Consequently, GDP per capita is on track to experience its strongest growth in 15 quarters (+2.1% annualized)."

"Unfortunately, past performance is no guarantee of future results regarding this renewed growth."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)