US Inflation Just Beat Wages, But Bernstein Says One Stock May Escape the Pain

US April inflation rose 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing 3.6% wage growth and reigniting fears that the Iran war energy shock is bleeding into food, transportation, and core consumer prices.

Bernstein, however, told clients Tuesday that tokenization platforms can sidestep the macro repricing, reiterating its $67 price target on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and signaling 72% upside despite the deteriorating backdrop.

Energy Shock Bleeds Into the Real Economy

Headline US CPI rose 3.8% in April, above the 3.7% consensus, while wages climbed just 3.6%. Many US workers are losing purchasing power for the first time in roughly three years.

Energy CPI rose 3.8%, and food prices climbed 0.5%, with average US gasoline now near $4.50 a gallon, up from $3.14 a year ago. President Trump floated a temporary suspension of the federal gas tax to relieve pressure on drivers.

Plastics and manufacturing costs are rising as Iran war supply disruptions ripple through global chemical inputs, lifting the risk that price pressure spreads beyond energy and food.

The US has delayed a plan to suspend beef import tariffs that Trump pitched as a grocery price fix.

Markets Reprice for Sticky Inflation

The Bank of Japan signaled rate hikes could come as soon as June, with one policymaker citing the oil shock as justification for near-term tightening. UK 30-year yields hit their highest level since 1998.

Hot inflation is the latest argument for the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts further into 2026, with dollar strength and elevated bond yields historically pressuring risk assets.

“While April CPI inflation rose to 3.8%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities. This has driven cumulative inflation since 2020 to +29%, meaning goods that cost $100 in 2020 now cost $129 today. Inflation remains a major issue for Americans,” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter indicated.

The S&P 500 is still up 8.3% year-to-date despite the macro tape.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that Figure’s blockchain-based loan origination platform is insulated from the macro repricing, with Q1 tokenization volumes rising 113% year-over-year to $2.9 billion.

Whether the repricing extends into core CPI or eases with an Iran ceasefire will determine how aggressively the Fed tightens through summer, and whether Bernstein’s macro-immune tokenization thesis holds.