Nvidia's Stock and Business: How Did I Do With My 5-Year Predictions Made in 2020?

In March 2020, I outlined where I thought tech giant Nvidia's business and stock would be in five years, or in March 2025. It's now a little past the five-year mark, so how did I do?

Overall, I'd give myself a B or a B+. I was mostly correct in my business predictions and accurate about what investors care about the most, the stock price: "I feel very comfortable predicting that Nvidia stock will solidly outperform the market over the next half decade," I wrote.

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Indeed, from March 1, 2020 (when my five-year predictions article published) through March 1, 2025, Nvidia stock's total return was 1,760% -- nearly 15 times the S&P 500's return of 118%. In other words, Nvidia stock turned a $1,000 investment into a whopping $18,600 over this five-year period. (Nvidia stock's five-year return through the date of this writing, June 4, is a little lower, as the chart below shows. Shares are up since March 1; it's the change in the 2020 start date that slightly lowers their current five-year return.)

Nvidia stock's fantastic performance has largely been driven by the incredible demand for the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) and related technology that enable artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.

Image source: Getty Images.

Prediction 1: CEO Jensen Huang will still be leading the company

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote that "as long as [Huang] stays healthy, the odds seem in favor of his still being at Nvidia's helm in five years."

For context, Jensen Huang, who co-founded the company in 1993, turned 62 in February, according to public records.

Nvidia investors should certainly hope that Huang remains the company's leader for some time. As I wrote in June 2024:

Nvidia is many years ahead of the competition in AI-enabling technology thanks to Huang's foresight. Starting more than a decade ago, he began to steadily use profits from Nvidia's once-core computer gaming business to position the company to be in the catbird seat when the "AI Age" truly arrived.

Prediction 2: Nvidia will still be the leading supplier of graphics cards for computer gaming

Status: Correct.

Here's part of what I wrote in the March 2020 article:

Nvidia dominates the market for discrete graphics processing units (GPUs) -- the key component in graphics cards for desktop computer gaming. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company controlled 68.9% of this market.

Nvidia has increased its leadership position over the last five years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, it had an 82% share of the desktop discrete GPU market, compared with longtime rival Advanced Micro Devices' 17% share, according to Jon Peddie Research. Intel, which entered this market in 2022, had a 1% share.

Growth in Nvidia's gaming market platform will be covered below.

Prediction 3: The global gaming market will continue its robust growth

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote: "In 2025, the gaming market should be much bigger [relative to 2020]."

By all counts -- the number of global gamers, total computer gaming market revenue, and computer gaming PC revenue -- the computer gaming market has grown solidly over the last five years.

And Nvidia has benefited nicely from this growth. In fiscal year 2020 (ended late January 2020), the company's gaming market platform generated revenue of $5.52 billion. In fiscal 2025 (ended in late January), this platform's revenue was $11.35 billion. This increase amounts to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5%.

This is strong growth for such a huge market. It might not seem so only because Nvidia's data center market platform's growth has been phenomenal over this same period.

In fiscal 2020, gaming was Nvidia's largest platform, accounting for 51% of its total revenue. In fiscal 2025, gaming was its second-largest platform behind data center, contributing about 9% of its total revenue.

Prediction 4: Nvidia's GPUs will still be the gold standard for AI training

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote:

The company's GPU-based approach to accelerating computing is considered the gold standard for DL [deep learning, the dominant type of AI] training, the first step in the two-step DL process. [The second step is inferencing.] This statement is extremely likely to hold true in 2025, in my opinion.

Since 2020, both AMD and Intel have launched GPUs for AI-powered data centers, but Nvidia's grip on this market -- which is growing like wildfire -- remains tight. IoT Analytics, a technology market research firm, estimates Nvidia had a 92% share of the data center GPU market in 2024.

As an added plus, since 2020, Nvidia's GPUs have gone from having very little share of the AI inferencing chip market to having the largest chunk of this market. Inferencing is the running of an AI application.

In fiscal 2020, Nvidia's data center platform's revenue was $2.98 billion. It skyrocketed to $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025, equating to about a 107% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This amazing growth powered the data center to account for 88% of Nvidia's total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 27% in fiscal 2020.

Prediction 5: The legalization of driverless vehicles will turbocharge its auto platform's growth

Status: My timeline was too optimistic.

In March 2020, I wrote: "In 2025, fully autonomous vehicles should be legal -- or very close to being so -- across the United States. Nvidia is well positioned to majorly profit from [this event]."

I wouldn't say that fully autonomous vehicles are "very close" to being legal across the U.S. This event seems at least a few years away. But I continue to believe this watershed event will "turbocharge" Nvidia's growth thanks to its widely adopted AI-powered DRIVE platform.

Prediction 6. The X factor

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote: "Nvidia is incredibly innovative, so there seems a great chance that the company will introduce at least one major new technology that takes nearly everyone by surprise."

Over the last five years, Nvidia has launched a good number of major new technologies that have likely taken most investors and Wall Street analysts by surprise.

One example is its Omniverse platform, which launched in 2021. This is a simulation platform that enables the creation of virtual worlds and digital twins. It's been widely adopted by a broad industry range of large enterprise companies -- including Amazon, PepsiCo, and BMW Group -- for uses such as designing products and optimizing facility workflow.

2020 article ending: And Nvidia's stock price in 2025?

Status: Correct.

Here's what I wrote in March 2020:

It's impossible to predict a company's stock price in five years because so many unknowns ... can have a huge influence on the market in general. That said, given the projections made in this article, I feel very comfortable predicting that Nvidia stock will solidly outperform the market over the next half decade.

Stay tuned. I'm planning on a predictions article similar to my 2020 one. Hint: It's going to be optimistic, as Nvidia's highly profitable strong revenue growth is far from over, in my opinion.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft and recommends the following options: short August 2025 $24 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.