President Trump Promised Not to Cut Social Security Benefits. Here's Why He's in Danger of Breaking His Commitment.

During his 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised voters he wouldn't cut Social Security benefits for seniors in any way. He reiterated that in an interview in December after winning the election.

"The people are going to get what they get," he said of Social Security beneficiaries. "And we're not raising ages or any of that stuff."

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Nearly 60 million American seniors rely on Social Security to make ends meet, representing a massive percentage of the electorate. These are citizens who helped Trump become president, in part because of his promise to protect their benefits. But President Trump is increasingly in danger of breaking that commitment. Here's why.

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Donald Trump and Congress are failing to protect Social Security

The Social Security program is in danger of a massive shortfall in funding if the government doesn't make any changes soon. As things stand, retirees can expect a major cut in benefits within eight years. That's when the Social Security trustees expect the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund to run out of excess money.

The government established a trust fund for Social Security all the way back in 1939. The fund collects revenue from taxes on wages and benefits, and it pays out the benefits due to seniors. The trustees invest any excess funds into reliable government bonds to help the trust fund grow in value and support future benefits payments.

As the population increased and the standard of living improved faster than inflation, the trust fund's balance climbed higher and higher. But that trend started slowing as seniors started living longer and younger generations had fewer children. In 2018, the trust fund saw a net outflow of funds, and that trend is accelerating quickly.

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund ended 2024 with $2.54 trillion after losing $100 billion. The trustees expect 2025 outflows of $181 billion, and that number will climb to $281 billion by 2029.

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When the trust fund is depleted, Social Security will only be able to pay out as much money as it brings in from tax revenue. The trustees' most recent estimate is that will only amount to 79% of benefits due to seniors.

Put another way, every Social Security recipient will see 21% of their benefits vanish unless the government takes action -- and the time to do so is now. The longer they wait, the more difficult it becomes to overcome the shortfall.

The government will cut benefits one way or another

There's no shortage of proposed solutions for how to solve the impending crisis for Social Security. The proposals deemed most likely to succeed by the Social Security Office of the Actuary are those that require sacrifices from both seniors and workers.

To maintain the health of the program and ensure its longevity, Social Security beneficiaries will likely have to take a cut in benefits, pay more in taxes on benefits, or wait longer to collect benefits (another form of cuts). Meanwhile, workers may have to pay more in taxes on their earnings or work longer to maximize their benefits.

However, the Trump administration so far has been focused on eliminating fraud in the program and cutting administrative costs. These are not effective solutions to Social Security's long-term challenges.

Social Security direct deposit fraud costs Social Security roughly $100 million per year, according to Acting Commissioner Lee Dudek. That's about 0.1% of last year's deficit. Administrative expenses account for 0.5% of the entirety of Social Security's costs. The other 99.5% goes toward paying benefits.

Even cutting 25% of Social Security's overhead would only reduce expenses by less than $2 billion annually or roughly 1% of the annual deficit through the end of the decade.

Meanwhile, Trump's proposal to do away with taxing Social Security benefits will take away a valuable source of revenue for the program. That will only serve to accelerate the timeline until the program depletes the trust fund and increases the cut in benefits when that happens.

If Trump really wants to prevent massive cuts in benefits for the seniors who need Social Security most, he needs to push Congress to act now before it's too late. If he and his successors fail to act, cuts will go into effect automatically and indiscriminately. That's going to upset a lot of voters.

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