Bitcoin UTXO Model Signals A Shift – Buyers Return As Selling Pressure Fades

Bitcoin has experienced sharp volatility in recent days, driven by escalating and de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, BTC broke below the key $100,000 psychological level following reports of US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking panic among investors. However, sentiment swiftly shifted when news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran broke, triggering a strong rally. Bitcoin surged back above $105,000, highlighting the market’s hypersensitivity to global conflict headlines.

Supporting this recovery is data from the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model by CryptoQuant, which offers insight into investor behavior. At the $112K peak earlier this month, the model recorded a spike to 34,000 points, signaling a wave of profit-taking as many holders sold into strength. Since then, the metric has plunged to just 216 points, suggesting that profitable selling has dried up, and a growing portion of transactions are now being realized at a loss.

This shift indicates that sellers have largely stepped aside, and buyers are beginning to take control at these lower levels. As long as Bitcoin maintains strength above $100K, the path forward could favor a more stable recovery.

Bitcoin Eyes Stability After Volatile Surge

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, having surged more than 7% in under 25 hours to reclaim higher price levels above $105,000. While the bounce has renewed bullish hopes, Bitcoin remains firmly within the consolidation range that has defined price action since May. Despite the aggressive move, short-term direction remains unclear as global tensions—especially in the Middle East—and tightening macroeconomic conditions continue to inject volatility into the market.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared fresh insights that highlight a key shift in investor behavior. According to CryptoQuant’s UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model, when Bitcoin hit its $112,000 all-time high earlier this month, the model spiked to 34,000 points. This marked a wave of profit-taking, as many investors capitalized on peak valuations. However, the metric has since plummeted to just 216 points, indicating that profitable sales have virtually vanished and that more participants are now realizing losses.

This steep decline signals that sellers have largely exited the market, creating space for new buyers to accumulate at lower levels. The shift in behavior suggests that while downside risks still exist, a sharp price crash is less likely in the near term. With selling pressure cooling and long-term conviction returning, Bitcoin appears to be entering a more constructive phase.

BTC Holds Above Key Support Amid Rebound Attempt

The daily Bitcoin chart reveals a sharp bounce from the $98,200 low back toward the $105,000 region, reclaiming a critical support zone near $103,600. This level had previously acted as both support and resistance since March and is now a key battleground for bulls. Price briefly dropped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) but has quickly recovered above it, signaling renewed short-term strength.

The bounce also comes after Bitcoin tested the 100-day SMA (near $96,000), a historically reliable area of buyer interest during corrective phases. However, despite the bullish reaction, BTC has yet to reclaim the $109,300 resistance level that capped multiple rallies since early June.

The spike in volume on the most recent green candle suggests demand is returning at lower levels, validating on-chain data that indicated sellers are stepping aside. Still, Bitcoin remains in a broad consolidation pattern, and a failure to break above $109,300 would keep the current rangebound structure intact.

To signal a true trend reversal and renewed momentum toward all-time highs, BTC must close decisively above $109,300. Until then, traders should expect continued choppiness as macro uncertainty and geopolitical events weigh on short-term sentiment.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView