Bitcoin Scarcity May Spark Explosive Surge, Bank Study Shows

Bitcoin’s available coins for trading have dropped sharply. That change could push prices higher if demand holds up.

According to Sygnum Bank’s June 2025 Monthly Investment Outlook, the liquid supply of Bitcoin fell by about 30% over the last 18 months. In that time, nearly 1 million BTC left exchanges. That means fewer coins are ready to move at a moment’s notice.

Liquid Supply Tightens

Based on reports from Sygnum Bank, exchange balances dropped by around 1 million BTC since late 2023. That amount equals roughly 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

When coins leave exchanges, they often go into cold storage or long-term funds. Some of these funds include new exchange-traded funds and corporate buyers issuing equity or debt to buy Bitcoin.

If coins are locked away, traders have to compete for a smaller pool of available coins. That gap between supply and demand can cause bigger price swings on the upside.

Institutions And State Moves

Three US states have now passed laws to hold Bitcoin as part of their reserves. New Hampshire already signed its bill into law. Texas is expected to follow soon. A third state is also moving forward, though details are still pending.

In addition, governments abroad are paying attention. Pakistan’s government has said it will look into Bitcoin reserves. In the UK, the Reform Party—currently leading in election polls—plans to study something similar.

When a state or country actually buys Bitcoin for its coffers, it can spark more buying. That act has a double effect: it creates immediate demand and it signals that public institutions see Bitcoin as a store of value.

Rising uncertainty over the US dollar and US debt worries have driven some investors toward Bitcoin. In May, as US Treasury prices slid on concerns about rising debt levels, digital gold and physical gold saw higher interest.

Bitcoin is being viewed more like a hedge against dollar weakness. On days when Treasuries wobble, some cash moves into crypto markets. Larger swings on the upside than on the downside also hint that institutions may be soaking up dips more quickly.

Sygnum’s data shows that since June 2022, Bitcoin’s upward moves have been larger than its downward moves. That may be a sign that big players have become more confident in holding through small sell-offs.

Ethereum is also stirring after a period of sluggish performance. The recent Pectra upgrade on Ethereum has spurred more fees and drawing fresh interest. Several big banks and financial firms are now exploring tokenization platforms built on Ethereum and its layer-2 networks.

When more institutions issue tokenized assets, the whole crypto space could benefit. Renewed activity on Ethereum often spills back into Bitcoin. That could add to overall demand for top coins.

Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView