BTC enters a price range for potential profit-taking

Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized above $104,000 and recovered to the $105,000 level for the first time. Based on price metrics, profit-taking may start happening at prices above $106K. 

Bitcoin (BTC) may start seeing profit-taking at prices above $106,000, based on Alphractal data. The metrics show price levels where profit-taking is probable, based on historical data. BTC easily recovered the $105,000 level but has not directly moved to the higher range, where whales may resume selling.

At this point, over 97% of the BTC supply is profitable, with no pressure even for short-term holders to capitulate. The supply in profit returned to levels not seen since December 2024, suggesting a local market peak. 

At these price levels, BTC may continue with attempts to recover its all-time highs above $109,000. However, historically, the Alpha Price threshold has caused profit-taking from older wallets. Alphractal analysis warns BTC may face selling pressure and stall around those price levels. 

Bitcoin is at the Alpha Price.

An ideal moment for OG Whales to take profits.

I'm not saying the price will stop rising!

But given the incredible accuracy of this Onchain pricing metric, everyone should be more cautious and wait for an oversold condition at some point in the… pic.twitter.com/XV3Ps8dgKo

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 12, 2025

BTC is also testing its support levels, sinking to the $102,000 range on Monday. The leading coin fell to a dominance of 59.4% as Ethereum (ETH) regained attention. 

The Bitcoin fear and greed index returned to indicating ‘greed’ at 70 points, up from fear territory under 40 points in the previous month. The rapid rise of the indicator suggests the rally may be peaking, leading at least to short-term profit-taking, even at a lower level.

The $106,000 level is also critical in the derivative market. BTC sees the biggest accumulation of short positions at $106,515.86, with over $83M in liquidity.

On Monday, the price moved downward, sweeping the long positions all the way down to $102,000. The short positions, in turn, may create a squeeze and a rapid recovery. 

BTC open interest inched down to $31B from a recent peak at $32B. Derivative markets are more speculative, but they also reflect the caution of spot buyers and holders at these price levels. 

BTC moved down from its overbought relative strength index (RSI) and is currently in a neutral state. The asset still sees predominant outflows from exchanges on both spot and derivative markets. 

BTC still signals accumulation in the background

The profit-taking signal diverges from the long-term rainbow chart, where BTC is still in the accumulation zone. However, with more of the supply in profit, spot selling may accelerate as some large-scale holders have set aside wallets for short-term trading. 

BTC accumulation may include purchases from ETF, as well as corporate buyers, including Strategy. Those assets may be held in custodial wallets, not creating or destroying more whales and not being transferred on-chain for safety. 

Whale wallets with over 10,000 BTC inched up, adding two more large-scale addresses. The biggest growth is for wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC, rising by 2,000 new addresses in the past six months. This category is still growing during the first quarter of 2025, though at a slower pace. 

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