S&P 500 rose 0.2% on Wednesday as traders waited for Nvidia’s earnings report

The S&P 500 surged 0.2% on Wednesday as Wall Street waited for Nvidia Corporation’s earnings report, a key moment for this year’s stock rally.

The chipmaker, now the largest stock in the index with roughly 8% weight, barely moved during the session, but traders held their positions tight.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 135 points, or 0.3%. The trading day was calm on the surface, but the pressure underneath was real.

Investors didn’t want to change positions until they saw whether Nvidia’s numbers would support the recent gains in tech stocks or trigger a pullback.

The earnings are seen as critical because Nvidia has become the face of the AI wave that’s driven much of the S&P 500’s gains this year. With a single stock now carrying that much weight, traders were waiting to react.

The report is due after the market closes. Any surprise in those numbers will not just move Nvidia. It will hit the entire index. The trading session also reflected global uncertainty.

Traders showed interest in euro options that profit if the currency gains. That demand, seen Tuesday, came even as speculation built around a possible confidence vote that could force the French government to collapse.

French assets stayed under pressure, but the euro held up. This disconnect isn’t new. A similar situation played out last year, French stocks dropped, yields widened, but the euro barely moved.

Euro weakens as dollar gains after Fed drama returns

On Wednesday, the euro fell to a three-week low. Traders in Europe said month-end flows pushed up the U.S. dollar, which led to the euro’s decline.

On Tuesday, the euro had gained 0.2% against the greenback, after news broke about political interference in the Federal Reserve. That news pushed the dollar lower temporarily.

The drop in the dollar came after President Donald Trump confirmed plans to remove Lisa Cook, one of the Fed’s governors, from her position on the board. Cook, through her attorney, said she would file a lawsuit to stop Trump from firing her.

That legal battle is just beginning, but it was enough to spark concerns about the central bank’s independence. Safe-haven trades like gold responded immediately.

Spot gold dropped 0.1% on Wednesday to $3,388.15 per ounce, while gold futures for December rose 0.2% to $3,438.30. The losses were muted due to ongoing demand for safer assets.

The dollar index climbed 0.2%, and Treasury yields edged up 0.4%, both of which usually weigh on gold prices. But investors didn’t flee from gold entirely.

On Tuesday, gold had reached a more than two-week high after Trump’s announcement about Cook. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has managed to stay up above $120,000 the entire day.

Metals edge down as traders look to GDP and inflation numbers

Investors are now watching for fresh data. On Thursday, GDP numbers are expected. On Friday, the market gets the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Reuters reported that economists expect the PCE to rise 2.6% in July, the same as in June. That number could confirm or challenge expectations for a rate cut.

Right now, traders are betting there’s more than an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting, based on data from the CME FedWatch Tool.

If PCE comes in hotter than expected, that probability could fall fast. If it stays flat or drops, the rate cut bet gets stronger. Either way, markets are preparing for impact.

Other metals traded lower. Spot silver slipped 0.3% to $38.47 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.3% to $1,344.20, and palladium lost 0.6% to $1,087.10.

These followed the dollar’s rise and firming yields, which tend to pull non-yielding metals down. But just like gold, there was no sign of panic; only cautious repositioning.

If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.