Gold trends down for days straight, is the gold bull over?

TradingKey - Gold prices continued to slide in Asia today, falling $196, or more than 5.7%, after down by nearly $72 yesterday, extending the downhill since the 7 May high. By the time this report was published, spot gold was around 3,170 ounces.

At present, there is no recovery momentum in gold's decline, and the market is relatively bearish after the Sino-US tariff agreement, and the bulls have been hit hard.

It is too early to talk about a break below 3000 to the key support level of 2956, but it remains to be noted that the bull market in gold has come to an end in the near future.

It is worth noting that the market risk appetite rebounded after the landing of the China-US tariff agreement, but the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity before the Fed's June interest rate meeting may exacerbate the volatility of precious metals.

If the subsequent US CPI data shows a divergence signal from the job market, gold may regain financial attention. At the current stage, the gold market is in a period of long-short balance reconstruction, and the trend direction selection needs to wait for more macro variables to land.

Political landscape news to watch:

Russia-Ukraine:

On Thursday, May 15, Putin confirmed the list of the Russian delegation, and Zelensky went to Turkey. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether substantial progress can be made in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Middle East :

Netanyahu issued a statement on Tuesday (May 13) that Israel will continue to fight and that Israeli troops will enter Gaza in full force in the coming days.

Hamas's release of dual US-Israeli hostages on Monday (May 12) did not ease the war.

Trump announced on Tuesday (May 13) that sanctions on Syria would be lifted.

Elsewhere: Whether the India-Pakistan border conflict can sustain a fragile truce.

[Gold daily K-line price chart, source: mitrade]

From the perspective of the game of technical and geopolitical risks, the short-term adjustment pressure on gold is significant, but the bull market logic has not been completely destroyed. After the breakout of the double top pattern, the technical selling and the closing of the long positions

form a negative feedback, and if the 60-day moving average fails, it may test the previous low in the 2950 area.

However, the global political risk premium remains: there is a risk of recurrence in the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process, the impasse between Israel and Hamas could escalate into a regional conflict involving multiple countries, and the border friction between India and Pakistan could also

break through the controllable range. These uncertainties will limit the downside of gold prices, forming a tug-of-war between "geopolitical risk aversion" and "improvement in economic expectations".