Trump said an Iran deal could come within two or three days

Donald Trump told reporters yet again that a deal to end the war he and Israel started with Iran could be reached in “two or three days,” even as the Middle East ceasefire cracked over the weekend and traders pulled back from oil and gold.

He said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” after an agreement, which matters because that waterway is one of the biggest pressure points in global energy trade.

Trump said both sides were near the end of talks on a “very, very good deal that will not in any way allow nuclear weapons.” Sky News Arabia also reported on Monday that a draft agreement had been sent to Washington for review and was “preliminarily acceptable” to the White House.

Trump pushes a near-term Iran deal while new strikes by Israel test the ceasefire

Right before Trump made the aforementioned comments, Iran and Israel traded strikes over the weekend for the first time since the truce began in mid-April.

Iran fired missiles toward northern Israel after accusing Jerusalem of breaking the truce through attacks in Lebanon. Those Israeli strikes included an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday. Israel then said it had carried out a “large-scale strike on strategic defense systems” in response.

As you know, Trump has made many bold calls on his war, and had previously said the fighting would last four to six weeks, but the conflict passed the 100-day line on Sunday.

Trump also addressed a separate U.S. military incident near the Strait of Hormuz. He said the pilots of a U.S. military Apache helicopter that went down on Monday “are fine.” He added that there was “nobody injured” and said the administration would release a report on Tuesday. The cause of the crash was still unknown.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning after the ceasefire comments. Brent crude dropped 1.3% to $93.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to $89.67 a barrel. Brent was also sitting near $94 during Tuesday’s trading.

Energy and gold analysts cut through the noise with ugly price calls

Meanwhile, Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at private research firm Rystad Energy, said oil could reach $150 per barrel within the next couple of months if the fighting continues and inventories keep falling.

“At this point, unless we solve [the Middle East conflict], unless we start to see an increase in the flow, then we are going to see lower and lower inventories, which means higher and higher prices. The problem, sitting right here, right now, we are absolutely not there,” Claudio said.

Claudio also pointed to a messy, longer-term setup. Even if the current oil squeeze gets fixed, he said the market could later face a huge supply glut because of the unwinding by OPEC and the UAE leaving the cartel. “This is a year of absolute deficit, but fast forward, 2027 may turn out to be a year of humongous surplus,” Claudio said.

Gold had its own ugly setup. Prices have dropped hard since hitting an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on January 29. Analysts at Citi, owned by Citigroup Inc. (C), said gold could fall to $3,500 an ounce if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the end of summer.

That would be about 19.7% below the $4,357.90 price seen at 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Citi said gold, often treated like the classic safe-haven trade, looks “incredibly high risk” in the short term.

Citi said a long Hormuz closure could slow global gold buying and drag prices back to levels last seen about nine months ago. Since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, gold’s safe-haven image has taken hits as traders question the reasons behind its huge run.

A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week added more pressure because it raised expectations for a year-end interest rate hike. Higher rates usually hurt gold because the metal pays no yield. Citi cut its three-month gold target to $4,000 an ounce from $4,300, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery traded at $4,352.90 on Tuesday morning.

Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.