Forex Today: US Dollar struggles on resurfacing growth concerns
Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 14:
The US Dollar (USD) Index remains on track to end the week in negative territory as investors grow increasingly concerned over the backlog of US data highlighting the adverse impact of the government shutdown on the economic outlook. The European economic calendar will feature a revision to the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment Change data for the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, investors will pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.72% | -0.02% | 0.39% | -0.19% | -0.55% | -0.95% | -1.75% | |
| EUR | 0.72% | 0.69% | 1.15% | 0.50% | 0.15% | -0.26% | -1.06% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.69% | 0.55% | -0.18% | -0.53% | -0.94% | -1.74% | |
| JPY | -0.39% | -1.15% | -0.55% | -0.63% | -0.97% | -1.37% | -2.22% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.50% | 0.18% | 0.63% | -0.27% | -0.78% | -1.63% | |
| AUD | 0.55% | -0.15% | 0.53% | 0.97% | 0.27% | -0.42% | -1.22% | |
| NZD | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 1.37% | 0.78% | 0.42% | -0.81% | |
| CHF | 1.75% | 1.06% | 1.74% | 2.22% | 1.63% | 1.22% | 0.81% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD came under renewed bearish pressure on Thursday as the uncertainty surrounding the economic conditions remained in place despite the reopening of the government. Market participants still await an official update on how the postponed data releases will be handled, especially after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might never release the employment and inflation figures for October. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers' cautious remarks on further policy easing weighed on sentiment on Thursday, causing Wall Street's main indexes to suffer heavy losses. Early Friday, the USD Index holds steady, slightly above 99.00, while US stock index futures trade mixed.
After rising nearly 0.4% on Thursday, EUR/USD stays relatively quiet early Friday and fluctuates near 1.1650. The Eurostat will release the Trade Balance data for September.
Gold benefited from the souring risk mood and extended its rally to a fresh three-week high above $4,200 on Thursday. XAU/USD corrects lower early Friday but holds above $4,150.
The Financial Times reported late Thursday that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves have ditched the plan to raise income tax rates, in a dramatic turn ahead of the budget on November 26. GBP/USD stays on the back foot in the European morning on Friday and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150.
The data from China showed early Friday that Retail Sales rose by 2.9% on a yearly basis in October, while Industrial Production expanded by 4.9%. AUD/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 0.6500 after posting marginal losses on Thursday.
USD/JPY snapped a three-day winning streak and closed in negative territory on Thursday. The pair moves sideways near 154.50 in the European morning on Friday. Japan's Economics Minister Minoru Kiuchi said that a weak Japanese Yen could push inflation up through import costs.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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