GBP/USD moves below 1.3150 as traders expect BoE rate cut in December
- GBP/USD loses ground as the Pound Sterling struggles dovish tone surrounding the BoE policy outlook.
- BoE’s Megan Greene expressed doubt that the UK’s monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive.
- The US Dollar gains as the US House is set to vote on the bill to end the government shutdown.
GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3140 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and UBS Global Research have shifted their stance and expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene stated on Tuesday that she is not convinced the United Kingdom’s (UK) monetary policy is meaningfully restrictive. Greene noted that wage settlement data for next year is higher than desired and expressed concern about persistent inflation in the UK, suggesting that monetary policy may need to be more restrictive. She also emphasized that risk management around inflation should play a key role in shaping the BoE’s policy outlook, per Reuters
The GBP/USD pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to optimism over the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government. The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House is set to vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases.
Weaker-than-expected Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment data, released on Tuesday, reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing in December and weakened the US Dollar. Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, compared with 14,250 previously. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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