Stocks, Bitcoin, and oil jump in anticipation of Trump–Putin talks

Global stocks, Bitcoin, oil, and precious metals all climbed on Thursday as traders braced for the high-stakes Friday summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

The two leaders are set to meet face-to-face in Alaska, aiming to talk about what it might take to end the war in Ukraine, which has dragged on since Russia’s invasion in early 2022.

While broader European equities pushed higher on the day, defense stocks in the region took a hit. Investors dumped names tied to the war economy, with fears that even the suggestion of peace could cool spending.

The Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense Index had tanked for three straight sessions once the Trump-Putin meeting was announced. But by Thursday, it started to climb again, rising 1.3%, though still far below earlier highs. 

It’s been up 52% year-to-date, boosted by the massive military budgets across NATO countries trying to counter Russian aggression.

Despite this pullback, analysts aren’t expecting much to change. Even if nothing concrete happens in Alaska, governments aren’t about to cancel contracts or stop ramping up production.

Bitcoin stays strong as Japan beats forecasts and China slows

While the traditional markets bobbed and dipped, Bitcoin was finding it hard to stand its ground too. The world’s largest crypto traded firmly above $120,000, after briefly touching a new all-time high of $123,637 less than 48 hours ago.

Meanwhile in Asia, stocks were split. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed at a record after the country’s second-quarter GDP grew 0.3%, beating expectations. The rise came despite pressure from U.S. tariffs, and showed the economy still has some fuel left. That small gain was enough to drive the index to a fresh high.

China, however, brought more reasons for caution. The country’s growth stalled in July. Retail sales were up 3.7% compared to last year, but that was far from the 4.6% forecasted by analysts polled by Reuters. It also marked a slowdown from June’s 4.8% gain.

On top of that, industrial output rose 5.7%, which was its lowest reading since November last year and under the 5.9% many expected. Beijing is still tightening its grip on industries with excess supply, but domestic demand hasn’t bounced back.

That weak momentum hit Hong Kong futures too. The Hang Seng Index futures slipped to 25,316, pointing to a soft open after Thursday’s 25,519.32 close.

Wall Street edges higher as oil and metals make cautious moves

U.S. markets were mostly quiet, but not idle. S&P 500 set a tiny new closing record Thursday night. Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite dipped slightly, but traders didn’t seem rattled. Futures told the real story. By early Friday, Dow futures had climbed 244 points (0.76%), S&P 500 futures added 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 futures crept up 0.07%.

Some big names made noise. UnitedHealth surged more than 10% after both Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management revealed they had taken stakes in the company. Intel also rose over 4%, off a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is exploring a plan to take a piece of the chipmaker.

Oil prices held steady, showing signs of strength but not breaking out. Brent crude was up 16 cents to $67.00 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate inched up 14 cents to $64.10.

Over in metals, it was a different story. Gold prices were heading for a rough week, down 1.8% so far. Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data crushed hopes that the Federal Reserve might slash rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting in September. Spot gold ticked up just 0.1% to $3,339 per ounce by early Friday. December futures stayed flat at $3,384.

Other metals followed gold’s lead; down, but not crashing. Spot silver slipped 0.2% to $37.91 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2%, landing at $1,354.94, and palladium gave up 0.3% to end at $1,142.51.