MP Materials: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is at the forefront of what could become an American industrial renaissance in rare-earth.

That could be overstating it; there are only a handful of rare-earth miners in the U.S., and none have an operationally large-scale rare-earth mine like MP's Mountain Pass mine in California. And yet the push from the U.S. government to shore up its rare-earth supply chain requires such a high level of investment and production that nothing short of an industrial revitalization will make it materialize.

Well, renaissance or not, MP has been part of a larger effort to reduce dependence on China and strengthen the U.S.'s supply chain. But do the policy tailwinds, which have abated slightly in 2026 (more on that below), still make MP Materials stock a compelling long-term buy?

MP's strategic importance hasn't gone away

MP Materials is America's home-grown rare-earth champion. In essence, it extracts rare-earth elements from its Mountain Pass mine and converts them into powerful magnets used in electric vehicles, electronics, defense systems, satellites, and more.

For a long time, the global rare-earth industry has been under Chinese control. Indeed, China accounted for roughly 70% of rare-earth extraction and 90% of rare-earth processing in 2025, with 71% of the U.S.'s rare-earth imports also coming from China. At times, China has leveraged this dominance for geopolitical purposes, such as when it imposed restrictions on rare-earth exports in 2025 following trade tensions with the U.S.

Image source: MP Materials.

More recently, however, the geopolitical backdrop has become slightly less adversarial. Indeed, in a fact sheet released after President Trump's visit to Beijing, the White House said China would address U.S.'s concerns about "supply chain shortages of rare-earth and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium."

While the relationship between the countries is still shaky, that willingness to work together does take a little wind out of MP's sails, or at least eases some of the urgency that was driving the stock in more tense moments last year.

Nonetheless, Wall Street remains largely optimistic about MP stock. After reporting first-quarter earnings that beat expectations, several analysts raised price targets on MP stock. Its average price target now sits at about $80 a share, roughly 36% higher than today's price of about $60.

Geopolitical tensions or not, reducing dependence on Chinese imports is a long-term priority of the U.S. government. To that end, MP's second magnet factory (the 10X facility), which will bring its rare-earth magnet output to 10,000 metric tons per year, could become a very important piece of the U.S.'s rare-earth supply chain. And in an industry as cyclical as mining, few things provide more stability than government backing.

MP Materials will have some growing pains in the near future, but with its growing role in national security, MP remains a compelling long-term buy.

Steven Porrello has positions in MP Materials. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.