How Much Is SpaceX Really Worth? (Hint: It's Probably a Lot Less Than You Think!)

SpaceX just announced the pricing of its initial public offering (IPO) shares at $135, and there's a lot of investor excitement building ahead of the stock's Nasdaq debut on June 12.

But that price means the company and its CEO, Elon Musk, are valuing SpaceX at a whopping $1.75 trillion. Isn't that a bit overoptimistic? What is SpaceX actually worth as a company, anyway?

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX is asking a premium price

A $1.77 trillion valuation would make SpaceX the eighth-largest company in the world by market cap, just above Saudi Aramco's $1.75 trillion and Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ: META) $1.5 trillion, but just below Broadcom's (NASDAQ: AVGO) $1.8 trillion.

One of the most common methods to assess the value of an unprofitable company like SpaceX is the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which compares the company's market capitalization to its annual revenue (with a lower multiple being better).

SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation gives it an eye-popping P/S ratio of 93.7 times its 2025 revenue. By comparison, tech titan Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) only trades at 23.2 times its prior fiscal year's revenue, and most artificial intelligence (AI) companies trade at even lower valuations. Even notoriously pricey AI security company Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has a P/S ratio of "only" 77.7 times last year's sales.

It's not uncommon for a high-growth company to have extremely high valuation metrics, but SpaceX is far from "high-growth" at present.

SpaceX's business segments have what some would call subpar growth

SpaceX's first-quarter 2026 year-over-year revenue growth rate was an unimpressive 12.5%. By comparison, Nvidia and Palantir each grew their Q1 revenue by 85% year over year. But what about SpaceX's prospects for future growth?

The company claims it has a total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion. Taking just a 1% share of such a large market would result in $285 billion in annual revenue, a huge improvement from the $18.7 billion SpaceX brought in last year.

The vast majority of that claimed TAM -- $22.7 trillion of the $28.5 trillion -- is the market for "AI enterprise applications." Right now, neither SpaceX nor its recently purchased xAI is a significant player in that category. SpaceX's only stated strategy to address said market is "serving the digital needs of the world's largest industries with AI solutions."

That's not very compelling (or descriptive!).

Small markets don't justify huge valuations

While SpaceX believes its xAI market opportunity is vast, it feels very differently about the markets for its other businesses.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's rocket launch business is clearly the global leader in its industry, having transported more than 80% of the mass put into orbit in 2025, and its Starlink satellite broadband and mobile service is the only part of the company that's profitable right now. But the company believes these businesses have just a $2 trillion TAM put together. And in all of 2025, they brought in just $15.4 billion in revenue (0.8% of the claimed TAM).

Even if SpaceX is correct about its TAM size, growing its market share will take time. Even if SpaceX could immediately quadruple its current companywide 12.5% revenue growth rate to 50%, and maintain that growth for five years straight (a tall order), by 2030 it would only bring in $141.8 billion in revenue, a mere 0.5% of its claimed TAM. On the other hand, if SpaceX continues at its current growth rate, its 2030 revenue would be a mere $33.7 billion.

A fair valuation

If Musk does a good job steering the (space)ship, SpaceX's growth rate will probably increase from 12.5% but fall short of 50%; perhaps it might average around the 20%-to-25% range. So, how are similar AI and/or communications companies with $18.7 billion in revenue and a 20% revenue growth rate valued?

Well, Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX), which manufactures data storage devices, grew its revenue by 21% last year to $11 billion, and data center infrastructure specialist Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) grew its revenue 22.1% over the past year, to $9.7 billion. Both are still smaller than SpaceX from a revenue standpoint, but are currently growing faster. As for communications companies, T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) has current revenue of $90.5 billion, higher than SpaceX's, but its annual revenue growth rate of 7.7% is lower.

Interestingly, these three profitable companies have nearly identical market caps: $194.2 billion for T-Mobile US, $193.4 billion for Arista, and $191 billion for Seagate. That suggests a fair market capitalization for SpaceX is probably somewhere around $150 billion to $250 billion. Maybe you could make the case for a $500 billion market cap if you are a big fan of Musk's AI vision. But even if you're extremely optimistic about SpaceX's revenue and margin growth potential, it'd be hard to argue it's worth more than about $750 billion.

But $1.77 trillion? Not even close. From a value standpoint, investors should steer clear of SpaceX's stock until they see evidence that the company is capturing more than a tiny fraction of its purported market share.

John Bromels has positions in Meta Platforms and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Arista Networks, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and T-Mobile US. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.