SpaceX Grew Revenue 33% Last Year -- Is That Enough to Justify the Company's $1.77 Trillion Valuation?

On June 12, SpaceX will complete its initial public offering (IPO) and mark the biggest-ever debut by market capitalization for a publicly traded company. The space-tech company is on track to sell more than 555 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share -- valuing the business at $1.77 trillion.

SpaceX commands leading positions in commercial launching services and satellite-based broadband internet. The company accounted for more than 80% of U.S. space rocket launches last year, and it captured roughly 90% of the commercial launch market. SpaceX's Starlink internet service has also now surpassed 12 million subscription customers across 160 countries.

With these growth tailwinds, the company's revenue grew 33% annually in 2025 to hit $18.7 billion. Is SpaceX's expansion rate strong enough to support a $1.77 trillion valuation?

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's IPO valuation by the numbers

At a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion, SpaceX is valued at approximately 94.7 times last year's sales. Meanwhile, the business recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion in the year. On the other hand, the business actually recorded a net profit of roughly $791 million in 2024.

SpaceX has already demonstrated that it can turn a profit, but questions remain about the margin outlook as the company continues to invest heavily to drive sales growth. In addition to high costs associated with rocket launching and other space tech industries, the artificial intelligence (AI) component that accounts for the other key part of the business is also highly capital-intensive. Even though SpaceX posted a profit in 2024, there's a good chance that high levels of spending to lay the foundations for future growth will present big pressures on earnings for the foreseeable future.

Long-term investors shouldn't categorically write off SpaceX just because profitability will be constrained in the near term, but some big questions remain about the company's valuation profile. The space tech leader is undeniably at the forefront of some service categories that have huge runways for long-term expansion, but some major growth has already been baked into SpaceX's IPO valuation.

While SpaceX's revenue growth has the potential to accelerate significantly above the 33% annual rate it recorded last year, the stock looks like a very risky play ahead of its public market debut. To be sure, the company's long-term opportunities are massive -- but the space tech specialist's valuation profile seemingly prices in near-flawless execution.

As just one point of comparison, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) grew revenue 85% year over year last quarter to hit $81.6 billion and currently trades at approximately 12.9 times this year's expected sales. It also recorded non-GAAP (adjusted) net income of $45.55 billion.

The two companies aren't necessarily neatly comparable, and it's possible that launching services, satellite telecommunications, and AI software offerings will wind up being more steady and reliable businesses than AI hardware over the long haul. But SpaceX's hugely growth-dependent valuation opens the door for big downside volatility in the near term.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.