Prediction: This Stock Will Be the Biggest Quantum Computing Winner of 2026

Quantum computing stocks benefited from enormous success in 2025. Over the last year, start-up companies in this industry, like Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, rose more than 600%.

Even Google-parent Alphabet increased by almost 90%. While its success may have had more to do with artificial intelligence (AI), its Willow chip keeps it on the cutting edge of the quantum industry.

However, in 2026, it may surprise investors that International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) has a strong possibility of becoming the quantum computing stock of 2026, and here's why.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why IBM?

Admittedly, many investors reading this might have written off IBM long ago. The stock suffered throughout the 2010s as its legacy tech businesses stopped growing.

Current CEO Arvind Krishna has recently breathed new life into the company by pivoting into the cloud and AI, but even then, it may surprise investors to learn that much of its focus has also been on quantum computing.

The company first provided public access to a quantum computer through the cloud in 2016. While that was a more experimental machine, it built its first commercially viable quantum computer in 2019 when it released IBM Q System One.

Advancements have continued since then, and in November, the company announced IBM Quantum Nighthawk. The 120-qubit computer can also run circuits with 30% more complexity while keeping error rates low.

Additionally, by the end of 2026, it promises to deliver quantum advantage, which can solve problems better than classical-only methods.

Furthermore, it plans to deliver the first fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. This involves developing an architecture that can correct errors efficiently, an issue that has long challenged the quantum industry.

Making sense financially

Another attribute making IBM stock a quantum-related success is its stability and return to financial growth.

In the first nine months of 2025, its revenue of nearly $48 billion grew 6% compared to the same period one year ago. That may not compare to the growth rate of some of the start-ups, and quantum computing enthusiasts will probably not like that the technology is not yet mentioned in the earnings report. Still, IBM has something many of them do not -- profits.

Over the same period, IBM earned nearly $5.0 billion in net income, a 61% increase from the year-ago level, although gains in current transactions and investments drove most of the increase.

Still, those improvements took IBM stock nearly 35% higher over the last year.

Moreover, while its 36 P/E ratio is not cheap, it stands out for having an earnings multiple, which is not the case for most of its quantum competitors. Additionally, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of just above 4 is a comparative bargain to start-ups with triple-digit P/S ratios. In comparison, its start-up competitors could easily fall if investors begin to question such sales multiples.

IBM PS Ratio data by YCharts.

IBM even compares well to Alphabet, and not only because the Google parent's 10 P/S ratio makes it more expensive. Alphabet's market cap of $3.8 trillion presumably means another doubling of the stock price would take it to $7.6 trillion. Considering that only one company has had a market cap exceeding $5 trillion, investors should expect some resistance to its growth.

Indeed, IBM's $285 billion market cap makes it a megacap. Still, given it's only a small fraction of its parent's size, it should be full speed ahead for its stock as its cloud, AI, and, eventually, quantum computing enterprises prosper.

IBM as a quantum computing winner

For 2026, the quantum computing stock most likely to succeed is IBM stock.

Admittedly, it lacks the size of Alphabet and the fast-growth potential of its start-up competitors. Investors should also remember that quantum computing remains an unknown and likely small part of IBM's revenue, as evidenced by the lack of coverage in the earnings report. That likely means the technology is more likely to be a contributor rather than a primary driver of IBM stock in 2026.

However, Alphabet faces a similar challenge with quantum computing, and its massive size could have a chilling effect on its future growth. Moreover, stocks like Rigetti and D-Wave Quantum already realized much of their growth in 2025, and a triple-digit P/S ratio may bring resistance to further near-term growth or even some selling.

In contrast, IBM continues to innovate in the quantum arena, and its profitability likely means it can afford to keep innovating, something that may not be the case for money-losing start-ups. Considering that it offers both quantum advancements and financial strength, IBM appears well-positioned for both industry leadership and stock price growth in 2026.

Will Healy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, International Business Machines, and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.