Is XRP Price Preparing To Breach Its 2026 Downtrend? Here’s What History Says

XRP has remained under pressure amid a broader crypto market pullback. The token continues to trade below a persistent downtrend line that began at the start of the year. Multiple breakout attempts have failed, reinforcing bearish control in the short term.

Despite the ongoing decline, historical patterns suggest this phase may precede a recovery rally. Similar technical setups have marked turning points in the past. Notably, July 2024.

XRP Could See Its History Repeated

The Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, Extreme Values indicator shows XRP has traded below the 1.0 threshold for an extended period. An MVRV ratio under 1.0 often signals that the asset is undervalued relative to its historical cost basis. This condition can reflect capitulation among short-term holders.

Green bars within the MVRV model indicate XRP is “getting low,” suggesting a potential bottom formation. Historically, such readings have occurred after MVRV remained below 1.0 for roughly 15% of trading days. These periods have often aligned with reversal stages rather than prolonged declines.

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A similar setup emerged in July 2024. Shortly after comparable MVRV readings, XRP surged 51% within days. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the data suggests XRP may be nearing a recovery phase if historical tendencies repeat.

On-chain metrics offer additional insight into shifting investor behavior. The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has begun to stabilize after a notable decline. This cohort represents mid-sized holders rather than large whales.

The recent uptick follows the largest drop in such addresses since December 2020. Historically, renewed participation from these holders comes after accumulation by larger XRP investors. Rising conviction among smaller participants often reflects a cascading improvement in confidence in price stability and potential upside from top holders.

XRP Price Aims At Ending Downtrend 

XRP is trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, holding above the critical $1.36 support level. Maintaining this base is essential for preserving near-term bullish prospects. However, the asset remains capped beneath a descending trendline that has rejected price advances three times this year.

While improving MVRV readings and addressing growth support a constructive outlook, confirmation remains pending. A decisive move above $1.57 would be required to validate a breakout. Flipping this level into support would clear the $1.50 resistance and break the established downtrend structure. Such a shift could open a path toward $1.91, marking a significant recovery extension.

If bullish momentum weakens, XRP may continue consolidating within its current range. A breakdown below $1.36 would shift the structure bearish. In that scenario, downside risk could extend toward $1.11, invalidating the recovery thesis and reinforcing selling pressure in the broader XRP price trend.