Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Dominating Profits, But Will It Lead To Recovery?

Bitcoin is making another attempt to break the downtrend that has kept the crypto king capped since late October. Price is hovering near $91,000 as investors watch a rare shift in market structure unfold. 

For the first time in more than two and a half years, short-term holders have surpassed long-term holders in realized profits, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.

Bitcoin Sees Some Shift

The MVRV Long/Short Difference highlights a notable change in Bitcoin’s profit distribution. A positive reading usually signals long-term holders hold more unrealized gains, while a negative value indicates short-term holders are ahead.

In Bitcoin’s case, the difference has dipped into negative territory for the first time since March 2023. This marks 30 months since short-term holders last led in profits.

Such dominance raises concerns because short-term holders tend to sell aggressively when volatility increases. Their profit-taking behavior could add pressure on BTC’s price if the broader market weakens, especially during attempts to break the downtrend.

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Despite this shift, Bitcoin’s broader momentum shows encouraging signs. Exchange net position change data confirms rising outflows across major platforms, signaling a shift in investor accumulation. BTC leaving exchanges is often treated as a bullish indicator, reflecting confidence in long-term appreciation.

This trend suggests that many traders view the $90,000 range as a reasonable bottom zone and are preparing for a potential recovery. Sustained outflows support price stability and strengthen the probability of BTC breaking above immediate resistance levels.

BTC Price Is Trying Its Best

Bitcoin is trading at $91,330 at the time of writing, positioned just below the $91,521 resistance. Reclaiming this level and flipping it into support is essential for BTC to challenge the month-and-a-half-long downtrend. Without this breakout, upside momentum remains limited.

If short-term holders refrain from selling and accumulation continues, Bitcoin could climb toward $95,000. A successful break above that level may send BTC toward $98,000, signaling renewed bullish strength.

However, if short-term holders start taking profits, the pressure could push BTC back toward $86,822. A drop to this level would prevent any meaningful breakout and invalidate the bullish setup, keeping Bitcoin confined within its multiweek downtrend.