Will the 2027 Social Security COLA Break the 45-Year High of 8.7% Set in 2023? Here's What We Know.
Key Points
Social Security is expected to get an above-average COLA in 2027.
Current estimates place it well under the 8.7% COLA from 2023.
However, rising inflation could still change this estimate.
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We're still nearly seven months away from the official 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement, but projections indicate that seniors hoping for an above-average increase are likely to get their wish. Inflation has increased recently, driving up COLA estimates.
Some are hoping next year's COLA will rival the 8.7% Social Security benefit boost seniors saw in 2023 -- the highest COLA in the last 45 years. We can't say for sure whether this will be the case, but here's what's likely based on what we know so far.
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The latest 2027 Social Security COLA projection is 3.9%
The Social Security Administration doesn't announce projections before the official COLA announcement in mid-October. But The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, does, and its predictions tend to be pretty accurate, especially as the official announcement nears.
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation rose to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March. This prompted TSCL to increase its COLA projection from 2.8% to 3.9%, a 1.1% increase. It's a bit unusual for it to increase benefits this much in a single month, and it reflects growing concerns about inflation.
That said, as things stand now, we're a long way from the 8.7% COLA that beneficiaries got in 2023. The COLA is tied to the inflation rate -- specifically, the average third-quarter inflation data. The Social Security Administration compares CPI data from July, August, and September of the current year with those from July, August, and September of the previous year. The average difference from 2022 to 2023 was 8.7%, so that's what the 2023 COLA became.
It's not impossible to think that another 8.7% COLA could occur in 2027. In May 2023, inflation was 4% according to the CPI report, which isn't much higher than where we are now. But inflation would have to increase rapidly over the coming months to break the 45-year record.
That would be tough on everyone, especially seniors living on a fixed income. It might lead to a larger Social Security boost, but all that extra money would go toward covering your rising living costs rather than raising your standard of living.
When to expect the official 2027 Social Security COLA announcement
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 Social Security COLA on Oct. 14, 2026. That's the day it gets the final piece of information it needs for the calculation.
Once we know the COLA percentage, you can add it to your existing checks to get a rough idea of what to expect in 2027. You'll also get a personalized COLA notice in December giving your exact benefit amount.
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