Goldman Sachs Just Made a Bold Statement About SpaceX. Here's Why I'm Not Buying It
Key Points
SpaceX is aiming for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's AI division to generate over $320 billion in revenue by 2030.
Goldman Sachs has an incentive to make lofty projections for SpaceX because of the valuation it's fetching.
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Banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is the lead underwriter for the historic SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) happening on June 12, so its main job is to market it and pitch it to institutions.
And while many may be focusing on SpaceX's space exploration and Starlink businesses, Goldman Sachs thinks SpaceX's AI segment -- which it acquired through the merger with Elon Musk's other company, xAI -- could grow 100-fold by 2030.
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SpaceX's AI division made $3.2 billion in 2025. To meet Goldman Sachs' prediction, the division would need to grow to $322 billion by 2030. This would be an average annual growth rate of 151%, which is a tough ask, to say the least. For perspective, that's a little more than Microsoft's total revenue in its past four quarters combined.
With the projected growth of SpaceX's AI division, Goldman Sachs says SpaceX's total revenue could reach $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year.
Things would have to go virtually perfectly for SpaceX to hit Goldman Sachs' projections. I personally think the lofty projects are a way to justify the high valuation SpaceX is seeking. It plans to sell its initial shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion and valuing the company around $1.77 trillion. That would instantly make it one of the world's top 10 most valuable public companies.
Anything is possible, but I'd be very surprised if SpaceX reaches those projections.
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Stefon Walters has positions in Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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